Okay, so maybe the map is a little unrealistic, but after last night’s debate, I feel as though Obama is going to win big and ultimately, we will enter a new era of political parties. English Scholar James Bryce introduced the concept of the political party system in his 1888 book the American Commonwealth. Since then, political scientists have furthered Bryce’s original observations, noting the major election cycles that illustrated massive party realignment. Scientist’s agree on the dates of the First Party System, between 1792 and 1824, which put Alexander Hamilton’s Federalists against Thomas Jefferson’s Democratic-Republicans. The later periods become slightly more debatable, but many agree that the Fifth Party System, which began with FDR’s 1932 victory, ended in 1968 when Republicans began to dominate Southern politics. However, in the year 2008, it is my prediction that we will see an end to this era, and a Barack Obama Presidency will lead us into the Seventh Political Party System.
This is the first election since 1952 in which there is not an incumbent President or Vice-President on the ballot. Because of this, both candidacies have redefined aspects of their party platform.
With the numerous scandals and the dismal approval ratings of President Bush, the Republican Party has been in shambles. As John McCain emerged from the primaries as the nominee, many were still unenthusiastic about this “maverick” politician as he differed from Republican colleagues in areas such as climate change, stem-cell research, and campaign finance. Yet, the surprising addition of first-term Alaskan governor Sarah Palin to the ticket immediately re-energized the Republican base, if only for a short while. Now even conservative columnist are asking Sarah Palin to step down, such as Kathleen Parker of the National Review who states in a September 26 column:
“If Palin were a man, we’d all be guffawing, just as we do every time Joe Biden tickles the back of his throat with his toes. But because she’s a woman — and the first ever on a Republican presidential ticket — we are reluctant to say what is painfully true."
So where does this leave the Republican Party? Sure, national defense was a top priority in the primaries, but with the recent economic crisis, they are now left with a candidate whose strongest issue is not one that over 50 percent of Americans feel is the most important. Furthermore, the social conservatism that defined Republicans in previous elections, such as views on abortion, gay-marriage, and climate change, have been put to the back burner due to the failing economy.
The Democrats too, made a decision to enter a new era of politics by choosing newcomer and African-American Barack Obama over the female veteran Hillary Clinton. Obama’s historic candidacy has put many southern Republican states in contention to turn blue. He currently leads by a slight margin in Virginia, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and hasn’t even been a hard fought race for years. In addition to these Republican strongholds characterized under the six-party system, the financial crisis will also continue to affect the electorate in November. It remains the largest financial crisis our nation has faced since the Great Depression. Republican candidate McCain has frequently said that he is not strong on the economy and has proved this lack of knowledge in numerous speeches and in the first debate. His economic policies parallel lame duck President Bush, and he fails to even mention the middle class in most speeches or debates. Which is not surprising, with 7 houses and 12 cars, how can he appear relatable?
Obama and the Democrats have been running get out the vote drives for over a year now and the Democratic primaries showed significantly higher figures than any of the Republican numbers. And although the polls appear to be close, if we have learned anything from the New Hampshire primaries, they don’t account for much except adding to the horse race excitement. I predict we will see even more Obama support in November.
The debate last night was truly the end for McCain and the Republicans. He needed to demolish Obama and make him look risky and unfit to be Commander in Chief. He failed, as Obama appeared competent and forceful yet was able to stress philosophical differences between McCain's world view and his own. In the next couple weeks it is my prediction that Palin will make several more embarrassing interviews (if she is allowed to talk to the press) and will appear extremely foolish next to Biden on October 2nd. McCain will continue to look haggard and angry, and more voters will realize his weaknesses when it comes to the economy.
We are in the midst of a realigning election. While the Republicans will mostly likely hold onto the more affluent white voters, it is uncertain which demographics will ultimately gravitate towards Obama and the Democratic Party. I personally know 5 lifelong Republicans who are voting Obama this election. What about you?
